After waiting for more than a year of policy gap, new energy vehicles finally ushered in two waves of policy support in the second half of 2013, and 2014 was even regarded as the first year of electric vehicles. However, many industry insiders who have invested in the field of electric vehicles analyzed that the biggest bottleneck for the biggest promotion of electric vehicles lies in the technological breakthrough of batteries.
On January 8th, in the investment night talk of the 2013 Global New Energy Vehicle Conference, more than 50 investors in the electric vehicle field gathered together. The representatives of Tesla and BYD who planned to attend before* did not appear, but the investment community is more concerned about battery technology breakthroughs than the real industry is optimistic.
New Horizon Capital Director Yi Jin said that one of the biggest problems in the promotion of electric vehicles is cost, and the biggest bottleneck of this cost lies in the battery. He believes that the current battery energy density on the market is too low, resulting in an increase in the weight and cost of the vehicle. Unless this technology is increased by 2-4 times to 300 watt-hours/kg, and the cost is reduced to almost one or two hundred dollars or less, in order to meet the requirements for large-scale promotion of electric vehicles in the future. According to Yi Jin, Xintianyu currently does not make any investment in the field of electric vehicles.
The above view resonated with the investment community. He Hongzhang, chairman of the Jingdao Fund, who has invested in the field of electric vehicles for many years, also said that if the cost of products is not reduced through technological innovation or through scale in the future, certain obstacles will be formed at the consumer level. And he believes that if China’s new energy vehicles still enjoy state subsidies forever and enjoy the opportunities squeezed out by the market, there may not be a big development. Regarding whether the scheduled 500,000 vehicles can be completed in 2015, he believes that it can definitely be completed, but the quality of the completion and the next step need to be considered.
Fu Yi, deputy general manager of Putian New Energy Co., Ltd., believes that after communicating with Toyota and BMW, they will understand that it takes three years for their research and development of batteries, which is impossible in most battery factories in China. The gap between quality control and system design is very far. Fu Yi gave an unsatisfactory evaluation of the intermediate magnification, cruising range, and service life. At the same time, he believes that it is basically impossible to achieve curve overtaking from the field of pure electric vehicles.
When will electric vehicles explode? Pan Xiaofeng, managing director of Jinshajiang Venture Capital, said that the current total market size is too small, and everyone still can’t eat. It will reach the tipping point of the industry in 2016-2017.
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